The Paris Agreement and NDCs: are the national mitigation targets sufficient to stay below the 1.5-2°C limit?

Short introduction on Morocco’s emissions

Although CO₂ is the driving force behind the temperature changes, other gases such as methane (CH₄) also contribute their share to global warming, for example through the exploitation of gas fields, and emissions by livestock. While methane is emitted much less than CO₂ on a global scale, it is a much stronger greenhouse gas (GHG). Scientists estimated the relative strength of the important Kyoto greenhouse gases so that we can convert all emissions to an equivalent of CO₂ emissions. For example, the emission of one ton of methane has approximately the warming effect of 25 tons of CO₂. The factor of 25 reflects the climate forcing on a 100-year time horizon, following the Global Warming Potential presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

With greenhouse gas emissions of approximately the equivalent of 115.2 mega tonnes of CO₂ (Mt CO₂eq), Morocco contributed 0.24% to the global greenhouse gas emissions of 2017 (rank 48 - incl. EU27 on rank 3). All emissions estimates exclude emissions and absorption from land, which result from activities such as cutting down or planting of forests (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry: LULUCF). Emissions from bunker fuels (international aviation and shipping) were also excluded, as they are not accounted for in national totals.

For 2030, Morocco’s global contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is projected to stay at a similar level of approximately 0.27% (151.8 mega tonnes of CO₂ equivalent / rank 48 - incl. EU27 on rank 4). The emissions projections for Morocco were derived by downscaling the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways’ (SSPs) “Middle-of-the-Road” baseline marker scenario SSP2. These pathways describe certain narratives of socio-economic developments and were, i.a., used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios that correspond to these developments. SSP2 is a narrative with little shifts in socio-economic patterns compared to historical ones, and is connected to medium socio-economic challenges for both climate mitigation and adaptation. While different models were used for each storyline, per SSP (SSPs1-5) one model was chosen as representative “marker scenario”. As the emissions projections are not readily available on country-level, but national estimates are important, the pathways were downscaled in the aftermath. In 2017, Morocco represented 0.47% of the global population. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2017 were 0.24% of the global GDP.

Looking at the highest contributing emissions sectors and gases separately, we find that in 2017 the highest contributing emissions sectors were Energy and Agriculture (51.9% and 21.5%). Amongst the greenhouse gases that are considered in the Kyoto Protocol, the strongest contributor with 53.2% was CO₂. This was followed by N₂O emissions, with a share of 26.5%. When not considering the sectors and gases independently, but the sector-gas combinations instead, Energy CO₂ and Agriculture N₂O (45.9% and 15.4%) represented the largest emissions in 2017.

Greenhouse gas mitigation and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

In 2015, the majority of countries agreed to the Paris Agreement (PA), with the goal of “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change” (Article 2.1.a). Countries stated their pledges and targets towards achieving the PA’s goals in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). With Article 4.4 of the Paris Agreement, Parties decided that “Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.”

In its NDC, Morocco communicates both, unconditional and conditional contributions. The unconditional target is “A 17 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to a BAU scenario, with 4 % coming from AFOLU actions. Without AFOLU actions, the reduction target is 13 %.”, while the conditional target consists of “An additional reduction of 25 % achievable under certain conditions, which would bring the total GHG reduction to 42 % below BAU emission levels by 2030, including AFOLU actions. Without AFOLU actions, the additional reduction would be 21 %, which would bring the conditional reduction target to 34 %.” (NDC, p. 6).

For a BAU scenario based on the reference year 2010 (NDC, p. 8), for several years, Morocco provides BAU emissions data in its NDC (170.8 MtCO₂eq SAR in 2030, GWP: NDC, p. 8). Additionally, the un-/conditional mitigation scenario data are presented (NDC, p. 7). While the mitigated data is separated into contributions including or excluding AFOLU, only one BAU scenario is given, to which the mitigated scenarios are all referenced. The 2030’ mitigation effort shares by sector are also provided (NDC, p. 13), i.a., for “Agriculture” (7.9%), and “Forest” (12.1%), adding up to 20% of total efforts. Therefore, the split in AFOLU contributions is 39.5% from Agriculture, and 60.5% from Forest. We use this information to recalculate the reductions into including LULUCF and excluding LULUCF, instead of including or excluding AFOLU. This eases comparisons with other countries, of which the majority provides targets in- or excluding LULUCF rather than AFOLU. Based on the BAU scenario, and absolute reductions compared to the 170.8 MtCO₂eq SAR BAU emissions in 2030 (NDC, p. 7), plus the information that 60.5% comes from the sector Forest, the absolute reductions compared to BAU are: 22.1 or 57.5 MtCO₂eq SAR if excluding AFOLU (unconditional and conditional reductions), 25.0 or 63.2 MtCO₂eq SAR if excluding LULUCF, and 29.4 or 71.9 MtCO₂eq SAR if including mitigation contributions from AFOLU. The availability of national estimates of emissions mitigation targets and pathways in line with countries’ NDCs is of great importance when, e.g., aggregating to global emissions to then derive, i.a., the resulting end-of-century warming levels.

The target is stated to have “Economy-wide” coverage, with the sectors “Electricity production; Housing (residential and tertiary); Agriculture; Industry; Transportation; Waste; Forestry” explicitly stated as covered (NDC, p. 8). We therefore assess all main IPCC sectors (Energy, IPPU, Agriculture, LULUCF, and Waste) to be targeted by this contribution. Not all seven Kyoto GHGs are covered. CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are listed as covered, while “Fluorinated gases are not covered; they are rarely used in Morocco and their emissions are marginal” (NDC, p. 8). In total, our assessment of targeted sectors and gases results in an estimated 100.0% of 2017’ emissions being targeted by the NDC (based on PRIMAP-hist v2.1 HISTCR exclLU, in AR4).

Regarding AFOLU, further information was provided on the methodology for estimating its emissions. “For the agriculture and forestry sectors, only CO₂ stored in biomass was taken into account. For the agricultural sector, GHG emissions and CO₂ sequestered from agroforestry programs and development of rangelands included in the Morocco Green Plan (olive cultivation, agroforestry of fruits, citrus, argon, fruit trees, palm trees, date trees and development of rangelands) are taken into account. For the forestry sector and other land-use sectors, only GHG emissions and CO₂ sequestered related to afforestation and reforestation actions, to the development and management of silvopastoral plans, to projects countering silting, improved home cook stoves and the management of forestry climate risks (for example, wildfires and forest health) are taken into account.” (NDC, p. 9).

The NDC-assessment is based on Morocco’s NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in September 2016.

The Figure below provides additional information, regarding both the baseline emissions used in our assessment and the quantified mitigated pathways for Morocco.

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Baseline emissions and mitigated emissions pathways based on the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution. In terms of national emissions, we look at the SSP2 baseline marker scenario, and the emissions of all IPCC sectors. Contributions from LULUCF are excluded (exclLU), and the emissions are based on GWPs from AR4. The left panel (a) shows the baseline emissions, indicating the contributions of the Kyoto Greenhouse Gases CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and the basket of F-gases to the national emissions. If we could extract baseline data exclLU from the NDC, you can see their values as black squares (converted from GWP SAR to AR4 if needed). In the right panel (b), the quantified mitigated emissions pathways are shown, based on information from the country’s NDC and also on non-NDC emissions baselines, per target conditionality and range (marked un-/conditional best/worst). Even though not all countries have targets with different conditionalities or ranges, we need assumptions for all four cases to build one global pathway per conditionality plus range combination and to derive corresponding temperature estimates. Therefore, we indicate these four pathways here. Per combination, we performed several quantifications with differing assumptions and show the median and the minimal and maximal pathways here. Additionally, if we could quantify the targets based on data extracted purely from the NDC - or if the targets were directly given in absolute emissions, these targets are shown as squares (in the GWP originally given in the NDC).

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FIG 1

Data sources and further information

• Historical emissions: PRIMAP-hist v2.1 (Guetschow et al., 2016, 2019).
• Historical socio-economic data: PRIMAP-hist Socio-Eco v2.1 (Guetschow et al., 2019).
• Projected emissions and socio-economic data: downscaled SSPs (Guetschow et al., 2020, 2020).
• NDC quantifications: NDCmitiQ (Guenther et al., 2020, 2021).
• GDP is given in purchasing power parity (PPP).
• Main emissions sectors (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC): Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture and LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry), also named AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use), and Waste.
• Kyoto GHG: basket of several GHGs, namely carbon dioxide (CO₂), Methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆), and since the second Kyoto Protocol period (2013-20) additionally nitrogen fluoride (NF₃).
• Global Warming Potentials (GWPs): GHGs have very different warming potentials. To make them comparable and for aggregation purposes, GWPs are used (how much energy will 1 ton of a certain gas absorb over a defined period of time, relative to the same mass of CO₂?).