Model Evaluation

Model evaluation is an integral part of any model development process. It helps identify how good or bad models are at representing natural or human processes, and thus, it gives us insights on our level of understanding we have about these processes. These processes are often complex and interlinked e.g. changes in species richness be influenced by a changing climate, land use changes, pollution, or even a combination of the former, and thus biodiversity models need to be able to capture this complexity to accurately represent the the present and making projections into the future. Model evaluation can also serve other purposes; for instance, it can help identify what models are best at representing observed data, also in particular locations, and how it is expected that these models will work if used for future projections. The collection of ISIpedia articles on model evaluation can answer important questions such as “are biodiversity models good enough at predicting the extinction rates of bird species in a changing climate? How could extinction rates evolve under a 2 degree global warming scenario?” or “what models are better to represent the bird’s diversity in certain regions”, among many others.

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Are our crop models able to reproduce the drop in maize and soy yields at high temperatures as observed in the US?

Bernhard Schauberger, Sotirios Archontoulis, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Christian Folberth, Nikolay Khabarov, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Erwin Schmid, Xuhui Wang, Wolfram Schlenker, Katja Frieler
Model evaluation Extreme events Agriculture